Roy Kapur Films

As the Indian film industry reaches the midpoint of 2024, Malayalam-language cinema from the southern state of Kerala has emerged as the breakout success story, while traditional powerhouse Bollywood recalibrates after an uneven start to the year.

“This year has been the year of Malayalam cinema,” says former Disney India head and veteran producer Siddharth Roy Kapur in his half-yearly analysis of the Indian entertainment business for Variety. “With four films crossing INR100 crore [$12 million] each at the box office, it has really come into its own commercially.”

The four films Roy Kapur is referring to are “Manjummel Boys” ($29 million), “The Goat Life” ($19 million), “Aavesham” ($18.6 million) and “Premalu” ($16 million) that occupy positions three, six, eight and nine respectively on the 2024 Indian box office chart.

While Malayalam films have long been critically acclaimed for rich storytelling and filmmaking quality, 2024 has seen them achieve unprecedented commercial success on a national scale. As they are made on relatively lower budgets, the return on investment is greater compared to their Hindi-language Bollywood counterparts.

This breakthrough represents a continuation of the pan-Indian cinema trend that has seen South Indian language films finding wider audiences across the country in recent years. In 2024, Telugu-language “Hanu-Man” is the highest grossing film of the year so far with $42 million.

For Bollywood, 2024 has thus far failed to match the exceptional box office performance of 2023, with the bright sparks being “Fighter,” “Shaitaan,” “Crew” and “Article 370.” However, Kapur sees encouraging signs in the success of several smaller and mid-budget films that have outperformed expectations.

“Films like ‘Munjya,’ ‘Srikanth,’ and ‘Mr. & Mrs. Mahi’ have managed to really punch above their weight,” Kapur notes. “For the industry, it’s a very heartening story that even mid-scale to small-scale films can succeed if the concept is strong enough.”

This trend marks a shift from 2023, when big-budget spectacles dominated the box office. Kapur believes audiences are signaling a desire for fresh storytelling approaches.

“Audiences are telling us that they are getting a little fed up of some of the older tropes,” he observes. “They’re challenging us to tell stories differently. If you do that, they will come.”

The relative underperformance of some highly anticipated big-budget films in early 2024, including “Bade Miyan Chote Miyan” and “Maidaan,” has reinforced this message. While it’s too early to see concrete changes in commissioning practices, Roy Kapur expects the success of smaller films to embolden younger producers and directors working with more modest budgets.

“It’s giving heart to many smaller producers and directors who don’t have the wherewithal right now to put the capital together to make a spectacle film,” he says. “It sends a message that there’s more hope than you might believe.”

Hollywood’s performance in India has been notably muted this year. “You haven’t really had any Hollywood film this year breaking through,” Kapur observes. While “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire” managed decent business with $15.9 million, it hasn’t reached the blockbuster status of previous years’ U.S. studio releases in India.

This struggle mirrors Hollywood’s global performance, which has been challenging compared to India’s relative resilience over the past 18 months. The situation underscores the growing strength of local content in capturing Indian audiences, Roy Kapur noted.

Looking ahead to the second half of 2024, several major pan-Indian releases loom large, including Allu Arjun’s “Pushpa: The Rule – Part 2,” Kamal Haasan’s “Indian 2,” Rajinikanth’s “Vettaiyan,” Suriya’s “Kanguva” and NTR Jr’s “Devara: Part 1.” Sci-fi epic “Kalki 2898 AD,” starring Prabhas, Amitabh Bachchan, Haasan and Deepika Padukone has just released with a massive opening. These films will test whether the trend of regionally produced films achieving national success continues to gather steam. Anticipated Bollywood films include “Singham Again” and “Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3.”

On the streaming front, 2024 has seen a relative cooling of the fierce competition that characterized recent years. Kapur attributes this to industry consolidation, including the pending Disney-Reliance merger in India.

“I anticipate the rest of 2024 being a time when people are still going to just be keeping their head down,” Roy Kapur predicts. He expects a renewed push from major streaming platforms in 2025 once strategies are recalibrated.

While no single streaming show, except Netflix’s “Heeramandi,” has achieved breakout status in 2024 thus far, Kapur highlights the success of comedy specials like “The Kapil Sharma Show” on Netflix as an interesting innovation. He also notes the continued strength of returning seasons for popular series like Prime Video’s “Panchayat” and “Mirzapur.”

The first half of 2024 has also seen significant viewer attention captured by political content on YouTube during India’s protracted election season, as well as IPL cricket coverage.

As the industry looks to the future, Roy Kapur expresses hope that India’s newly appointed Minister for Information and Broadcasting, who oversees both IT and media portfolios, will foster a more integrated approach to regulation across digital and traditional media.

“What I’m hopeful for is as much leeway and freedom being given for creative expression,” Roy Kapur says. “Less regulation with regard to content creation would be wonderful.”