Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Outstanding Television Movie Commentary (Updated April 4, 2025): The top Emmy contenders for outstanding TV movie span an impressive spectrum of genres, streaming platforms and directorial styles, in movies that star Steve Carell, Sadie Sink, Miles Teller, Dakota Johnson and more. Some of the filmmakers arrive with serious awards pedigree, while others are poised for breakout moments that could redefine their creators’ careers.

One of the buzziest titles was just announced coming from Emmy darling Jesse Armstrong, making his feature directorial debut with “Mountainhead,” premiering May 31 on HBO/Max. This marks Armstrong’s first major project since “Succession” completed its Emmys sweep in 2023, and all eyes are on how the sharp satirist translates his signature tone to a new format. HBO/Max will be juggling a few titles, notably with Stephanie Allynne and Tig Notaro’s “Am I OK?” with Dakota Johnson.

Set “against the backdrop of a rolling international crisis,” the film follows a group of billionaire friends as their privileged reality begins to fracture. It seems like classic Armstrong and boasting a stellar cast from Steve Carell, Ramy Youssef, Cory Michael Smith and Jason Schwartzman, who plays a dual role.

Armstrong already has four Primetime Emmy wins under his belt, including three for writing drama — the only solo writer to win for every season of a series (“The Defenders” did this also but with multiplw writers). “Mountainhead” could continue his awards streak while shaking up the TV movie field.

Apple TV+’s stylish thriller “The Gorge,” helmed by Scott Derrickson, best known for his genre-defining work on “The Black Phone” and Marvel’s “Doctor Strange” is in play with star Miles Teller, which could be a serious contender.

Already winning prizes, Netflix’s “Rebel Ridge” won the Critics Choice Award for best TV movie in February. Directed by Jeremy Saulnier, whose credits include indie thrillers “Green Room” and “Blue Ruin,” the taut, and tension-filled flick could add an Emmy stauette for Netflix., who has won this category four times (most recently for 2021’s “Dolly Parton’s Christmas on the Square”).

While the top three movies are generating most of the early heat, the category is still wide open. Emmy voters are known for late-breaking favorites, and surprise passion picks. Don’t be shocked if another streamer (Hulu, Prime Video or Peacock?) sneaks in with flicks such as the musical film “O’Dessa” with Sadie Sink, the political action thriller “G20” with Viola Davis or the rom-com sequel “Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy” with Renee Zellweger.

See Emmy Award predictions below:

Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars

(The list of predicted nominees and contenders is incomplete and will be updated every Thursday throughout the TV Awards season.)

And the Predicted Contenders Are:

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More Information (TV Movie)

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About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.

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