In 2022, Parker Finn’s Smile became one of the most profitable movies of the year, bringing in more than $217 million on a $17 million production budget. Paramount quickly greenlit a sequel, a no-brainer in an era in which horror is one of the only sure bets left at the box office. Studios embarked on a horror arms race, locking up talent in first-look deals, hiring execs to focus on the genre and figuring out how to get more product into theaters.
Two years later, Smile 2 arrived during the Oct. 18-20 weekend in an entirely different landscape, where the marketplace has become increasingly oversaturated, setting off alarm bells at major and indie studios.
The well-received Smile sequel went up against the second weekend of Cineverse’s unrated indie slasher sensation Terrifier 3, which had opened to a shockingly better-than-expected $18.9 million the week before (see opposite page).
Paramount was confident that Smile 2 would match or outgross the opening of the first film, and while it succeeded with $23 million, there’s no doubt that Terrifier 3 ate into its business. In its second outing, the latter fell only 51 percent to $9.3 million.
The beauty of horror is that movies can be made faster and cheaper than other genres, generating huge profits. But as the marquee becomes flooded with more and more choices, there’s growing audience fatigue.
“There are something like 26 wide horror releases this year. And there are already 18 next year,” says one top studio exec, who predicts more will be added to the 2025 calendar. “You’d like to have a break in between. You don’t want audiences to be satiated by the time you come along.”
A few of the high-profile 2025 offerings include Barbarian producer BoulderLight’s Companion (Jan. 10); Leigh Whannell’s Wolf Man (Jan. 17); Oz Perkins’ Longlegs follow-up The Monkey (Feb. 21); Dakota Fanning starrer Vicious (Feb. 28); Ryan Coogler’s Sinners (March 7); video game adaptation Until Dawn (April 25); M3GAN 2.0 (June 27); Saw XI (Sept. 26); The Black Phone 2 (Oct. 17); and Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 (Dec. 5).
Terrifier 3 wasn’t Smile’s only competition. With Halloween approaching, there were five other new horror offerings over the Oct. 18-20 weekend, though all were moderated or limited releases, including Fathom Events’ Oct. 20 rerelease of an unrated cut of Saw X.
Lionsgate’s Saw franchise ushered in the era of torture porn, which appears to be enjoying a resurgence based on Terrifier 3. (Little-discussed fact: The unrated Terrifier 2 actually opened against the first Smile, but it only booked about 770 theaters, with most cinemas only offering one evening showtime and banning it from playing on Sunday. It didn’t even crack $1 million in its opening but ended up getting traction and became a hit.)
For every film like Smile and Terrifier, there have been high-profile misses of late for the genre. Blumhouse and Miramax were badly bruised when The Exorcist: Believer flamed out in October 2023 and killed hopes for a trilogy. Blumhouse’s Five Nights at Freddy’s was a box office win later that month, softening the blow.
“All at once, starting in the mid-2010s, it seemed as though audiences had suddenly decided that comedies and awards movies were best watched at home. And now we sit and wonder if the previously surefire horror genre is no longer as theatrically viable, either,” says Comscore chief box office analyst Paul Dergarabedian. “The early 2023 offerings — M3GAN, Cocaine Bear, Scream VI and Evil Dead Rise — grossed $585 million worldwide on a combined budget of near $100 million. Thus far, the major 2024 horror titles that didn’t work — Night Swim, Imaginary, Late Night With the Devil, Immaculate, The First Omen and Abigail — should end their combined runs with $235 million on a combined near $100 million budget.”
This story appeared in the Oct. 23 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.
