Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice debuted at $166 million with terrible reviews and a “B” CinemaScore. The bottom fell out about 18 months later when the first and only Justice League movie with a wide theatrical release opened to $94 million despite supposedly decades of anticipation (and being another victim of extensive and expensive reshoots). The Flash, meanwhile, earned a “B” CinemaScore opposite its disastrous $55 million debut. That still was higher than Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, which somehow only opened to $27.7 million despite being a sequel to a film that grossed $1 billion in the superhero movie glory days of the 2010s.

There are of course extenuating circumstances, especially in the case of Aquaman 2, which was essentially sent out to die in December 2023 after Warner Bros. Discovery signaled they were rebooting the whole cinematic DC universe. Nonetheless, superhero movies that are received poorly by fans have usually acted as prelude to awful second-weekend drops and then diminished interest in the larger franchise a few months later.

All of which puts the MCU in a strange place. Right now, Brave New World’s overperformance might suggest audiences enjoyed it better than industry pollsters foresaw on Friday night. Maybe. In which case, a better-than-expected opening weekend might lead to a less grim-than-anticipated second weekend drop. Next week would be the bigger test, then, in Brave New World‘s long-term prospects.

Beyond the fourth Captain America movie, however, remains the health of the MCU brand itself. Last year Marvel saw another movie cross the $1 billion threshold, but it was one rife with nostalgia for 2010s and even 2000s superhero movies: Deadpool & Wolverine. Brave New World, by contrast, had an eye on the future as gleaned from its title and the fact it introduced a new Captain America (played with charisma and charm by Anthony Mackie). The film even hints Mackie’s Cap will be instrumental in assembling a new Avengers roster in next year’s Avengers: Doomsday.

But the muted CinemaScore and diminishing ticket sales when compared to other Captain America movies, or even the last Ant-Man flick, suggests audiences are in a nebulous place with the MCU, and as the fortunes of the DCEU proved, that is a dangerous position to be in for a long-running superhero franchise.

We suppose the real tests, then, will be to see not only how the film does in its second weekend, but whether its troubles are an isolated incident related to a movie that critics and audiences were ambivalent toward, or a more systemic reception to the next slate of Marvel movies, two of which open later this year.