Thunderbolts* is Marvel Studios’ best-reviewed movie since 2021’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and Spider-Man: No Way Home. If its 94% “Popcornmeter” score on Rotten Tomatoes is any indication, fans also love it. 

Unfortunately, Captain America: Brave New World may have washed away any goodwill created by Deadpool & Wolverine. Thus far, people simply haven’t flocked to the team-up (which has been rebranded *The New Avengers).

Does a superhero movie need to be an event to attract audiences now? Were these characters—many of whom have been seen primarily on streaming after Black Widow bypassed theaters during the pandemic—and the “Thunderbolts” branding simply not a big enough draw? It’s hard to say, but the movie has reached a respectable $272.2 million at the worldwide box office. 

According to Deadline, it’s made $143.7 million overseas, with a -52% drop (-50% excluding China). That’s a very good hold, though it would obviously mean more if its global opening had been bigger last week. Still, Thunderbolts*‘s “social scores” are said to be “great,” and the trade expects it to reach $300 million by the end of the week. 

As for whether it can turn a profit, it’s hard to say. Thunderbolts* cost $180 million to produce and approximately $100 million to market, so it “needs to outperform expectations to justify its hefty price tag.”

If we go by the not wholly accurate “2.5x budget” rule, Marvel Studios’ latest blockbuster needs to make $450 million to break even without marketing costs taken into account. With them, it’s more like $700 million. 

We’ll see what happens, but Thunderbolts* has to contend with Final Destination Bloodlines next weekend before Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning come along and dominate the long Memorial Day holiday. 

Ultimately, Thunderbolts* is expected to end its run with $405 million – $445 million. This begs the question of whether, surprise be damned, it should have been marketed as The New Avengers from the start.

In Thunderbolts*, Marvel Studios assembles an unconventional team of antiheroes – Yelena Belova, Bucky Barnes, Red Guardian, Ghost, Taskmaster and John Walker. After finding themselves ensnared in a death trap set by Valentina Allegra de Fontaine, these disillusioned castoffs must embark on a dangerous mission that will force them to confront the darkest corners of their pasts.

Will this dysfunctional group tear themselves apart, or find redemption and unite as something much more before it’s too late?

“Thunderbolts* redefines superhero storytelling to deliver a moving and powerful story that does for the ‘Multiverse Saga’ what The Avengers did for the ‘Infinity Saga’ in 2012,” we said in our review. “These heroes have earned their place on a Wheaties box.”

The cast of Thunderbolts* will be led by Florence Pugh as Yelena Boleva, Sebastian Stan as Bucky Barnes, David Harbour as Red Guardian, Wyatt Russell as U.S. Agent, Hannah John-Kamen as Ghost, Olga Kurylenko as Taskmaster, Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Valentina Allegra de Fontaine, and Lewis Pullman as “Bob.”

Written by Eric Pearson, Lee Sung Jin, and Joanna Calo, and directed by Jake Schreier, Thunderbolts* is now playing in theaters.