Summary

• Blade’s long and troubled production history may hinder its chances of hitting $1 billion at the box office while Captain America: Brave New World faces challenges as a solo film without the ensemble cast of a typical Avengers project.
• Thunderbolts* has the potential to cross the $1 billion mark due to its team-up nature and star-studded cast, with the same being said for The Fantastic Four.
• Deadpool & Wolverine, Avengers: The Kang Dynasty, and Avengers: Secret Wars are all but guaranteed to surpass $1 billion, and have a much higher likelihood of doing so than all other upcoming MCU films.

The Marvel Cinematic Universe has not had a Marvel Studios-produced $1 billion movie since Avengers: Endgame, begging the question of how likely each upcoming movie is to cross the landmark. The list of upcoming Marvel movies is somewhat extensive and is only expected to be built on. Each of these movies has more pressure than they once would have, primarily due to the lack of $1 billion movies the franchise has had since 2019.

Since the release of Avengers: Endgame, only two movies have crossed the milestone, and both were produced by Sony. Spider-Man: Far From Home and Spider-Man: No Way Home saw their immense profits go to Sony Pictures, meaning the MCU’s box office successes are not attributed to Marvel Studios of late. With only one Marvel movie releasing in 2024 belonging to Marvel Studios, all attention turns to whether the switch in release strategy will fix the poor box office run the studio has endured with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and The Marvels.

While Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was a success for the MCU – and the only big-budget 2023 movie to turn a box office profit – there is no denying that Marvel Studios’ period of sustained dominance between 2013 and 2019 is unlikely to be restored. That said, this will not stop Kevin Feige and the other creatives at Marvel Studios from trying, with several big movies coming in the next few years. With that in mind, here is every movie confirmed for release in the MCU ranked by how likely they are to cross the coveted $1 billion milestone.

7 Blade

The Excitement Of The Project May Not Translate To Extreme Box Office Success

Coming in as the least likely upcoming MCU movie to cross $1 billion is Blade. Blade was first announced at San Diego Comic-Con in 2019, but has suffered a period of development hell since. The initial announcement garnered much excitement due to the possibility of seeing a character as fun as Blade in the MCU and the casting of two-time Academy Award winner Mahershala Ali in the titular role.

Mahershala Ali was the one who initially pitched a Blade movie to Kevin Feige after hearing Marvel Studios were looking to reboot the franchise.

However, the Blade movie’s MCU story has significantly dwindled in excitement. Since its announcement, Blade has undergone several major overhauls. The film’s original director, Bassim Tariq, departed the project due to creative differences, with Yann Demange coming in as his replacement. Demange then exited the project in 2024, this coming after five different writing teams attempted to craft a compelling script. These seemingly endless production issues have seriously impacted anticipation for the film, meaning it is less likely to hit $1 billion than the other upcoming MCU movies.

6 Captain America: Brave New World

Sam Wilson’s First Solo Outing Faces An Uphill Battle To Earn $1 Billion

The upcoming story of Captain America: Brave New World is in a similar position to Blade, only on a lesser scale. Like Blade, Captain America: Brave New World has had some production issues including reshoots and rewrites. That said, the film has managed to retain the same director and writing team that were first announced to craft the story, giving it a significant advantage over Blade‘s fractured production. Even so, Captain America: Brave New World has some factors that make it less likely to hit $1 billion than other MCU films.

The excitement of seeing Anthony Mackie as Captain America in his first solo movie gives the film will undoubtedly improve the film’s box office, though how much remains to be seen.

For one, the film is essentially a sequel to The Falcon and the Winter Soldier. Unfortunately, it is coming four years after the release of the show, meaning Marvel has arguably already missed the opportune moment to release Captain America 4. Furthermore, while the cast is exciting and promises wider MCU connections, it is a solo Captain America movie, and only one such film has passed $1 billion at the box office. This movie was Captain America: Civil War, a pseudo-Avengers project. For these reasons, it is difficult to see Captain America: Brave New World surpassing the threshold.

5 Thunderbolts*

The MCU’s Next Team Up Movie Has The Potential Of Crossing $1 Billion

Thunderbolts* is an interesting movie concerning its $1 billion chance. Regarding why it may not cross the milestone, the film is not necessarily one that many fans desired. The setup for Thunderbolts* has been evident throughout the MCU’s Phases 4 and 5, though many were disappointed at the team roster announced. The common consensus was that it lacked any real superpowered beings like Red Hulk or Abomination, with many – though not all – of the characters chosen for the film being lesser-known and less compelling in their individual stories.

Although the overall lack of outright excitement surrounding Thunderbolts* MCU story, there are some reasons that see it more likely to gross $1 billion than Captain America 4 or Blade. To put it simply, Thunderbolts* is a team-up movie. It will be the first project to feature a superhero team since Avengers: Endgame, with that alone meaning more people are likely to see it than solo movies with production issues. Secondly, the star power of the cast is great with the likes of Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan, and David Harbor leading the team.

4 The Fantastic Four

The Reboot Of Marvel’s First Family Has A Solid Chance To Be A Box Office Success

While it is worth noting that the prior movies all have a chance of crossing $1 billion, they are simply less likely to do so for various reasons. On the other hand, the first upcoming MCU movie that is likely to reach this threshold is The Fantastic Four. Since its announcement, The Fantastic Four has had an unrivaled level of hype from the MCU fanbase. Casting announcements were speculated about for years, with updates about the film being coveted information before the director and cast members were officially confirmed.

With
The Fantastic Four
also being a team movie and having the benefit of being a much-maligned Marvel property that many hold the desire to see adapted correctly, the film is more likely to surpass $1 billion…

The announcement of the official cast only enhanced anticipation, and the film’s box office chances, thanks to the star power involved. Pedro Pascal, Vanessa Kirby, Joseph Quinn, and Ebon Moss-Bachrach were cast as the titular team with WandaVision director Matt Shakman having picked his four. With The Fantastic Four also being a team movie and having the benefit of being a much-maligned Marvel property that many hold the desire to see adapted correctly, the film is more likely to surpass $1 billion than those before it.

3 Avengers: The Kang Dynasty

An Avengers Movie Will Surely Succeed At The Worldwide Box Office

Since the MCU began, four Avengers movies have been released, five when counting Captain America: Civil War‘s star-studded cast. Every single one of these projects has surpassed $1 billion, making it incredibly likely that Avengers: The Kang Dynasty will do the same. While the situation with the MCU’s former Kang actor Jonathan Majors may sour excitement for the film somewhat, his replacement will undoubtedly be handled well by Marvel, and should not completely negate anticipation for an Avengers movie.

Besides Kang, the film is expected to feature the Multiverse Saga’s biggest characters and thus, the MCU’s most popular actors. Like Avengers: Infinity War, the first part of the Infinity Saga’s finale, Avengers: The Kang Dynasty will bring together the disparate sections of the MCU in a major climactic story. When combined with the aforementioned feat of Avengers-level films never dropping below $1 billion, the film’s promised cast and epic plot make Avengers: The Kang Dynasty highly likely to do the same.

2 Deadpool & Wolverine

The MCU’s Next Movie Has A Massive Chance At Hitting A Box Office Milestone

The next MCU movie, scheduled for release in July 2024, is Deadpool & Wolverine. More so than any other upcoming MCU film barring one, Deadpool & Wolverine has the biggest chance to cross $1 billion. Not only is the story uniting Ryan Reynolds’ Deadpool and Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine from the Fox X-Men movie timeline, but it is doing so in the setting of the wider MCU. The multiversal storytelling will be incredible for fans of both franchises, with the two leads undoubtedly boosting the film’s chances.

These benefits, as well as Deadpool & Wolverine‘s apparent importance to the Multiverse Saga’s overarching story, have proven to translate to box office success. Deadpool & Wolverine has broken several pre-sale records, proving how much of a success the film will be. When taking into account Deadpool & Wolverine‘s confirmed China release, a massively important market for worldwide box office figures, it is an almost unthinkable scenario that the film does not cross $1 billion.

1 Avengers: Secret Wars

The Multiverse Saga’s Conclusion Is Expected To Rival Avengers: Endgame

The only upcoming MCU movie that is more likely to earn $1 billion than Deadpool & Wolverine is Avengers: Secret Wars. The film is billed as the final installment in the Multiverse Saga and will bring all elements of the MCU’s core timelines together. From the prime timeline of Avengers and the potential return of Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man to the inclusion of old X-Men and Fantastic Four casts among other exciting cameos and variants, Avengers: Secret Wars’ cast is expected to appeal to every single type of Marvel movie fan.

Avengers: Secret Wars’ director and writer are yet to be confirmed, with the film scheduled to release in 2027.

This seemingly endless cast positions Avengers: Secret Wars as the next Endgame-level event, only this time across the vast multiverse. Although the dizzying size of the film’s ambitions could make it fall short quality-wise, the film only needs to be made well to all but guarantee a $1 billion gross. If the film is on a similar level to Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame, it could even cross $2 billion worldwide, marking it as an overwhelming success for the Marvel Cinematic Universe after an unsteady few years in the commercial department.