The Mandalorian and Grogu Box Office Confirms New Reality for Star Wars (and It’s Not Bad)
So there’s thus a definite “glass half empty” way of looking at The Mandalorian and Grogu’s opening, which is a far cry from The Force Awakens’ $248 million debut in 2015 or even the much derided Rise of Skywalker in 2019, a movie that bowed at $177 million. Yet by virtue of those increasingly distant-sounding years on the other side of the COVID pandemic, a greater context should be considered.
If you view Mando and Grogu’s cinematic detour as purely the heir of a lofty 50-year legacy, the weight of expectations becomes severe. Conversely, if one takes a coolly spreadsheet-minded survey of the current field for Disney’s bread and butter—largely nostalgia-driven intellectual property, at least in terms of live-action—Mandalorian and Grogu could be considered a step in the right direction.
When counting the fourth day of the weekend, the new Star Wars film opened higher than Disney’s Marvel offering last May, Thunderbolts*, which grossed $74 million during the first weekend of May, a spot that noticeably was occupied by Disney’s The Devil Wears Prada 2 this year (and which also opened above Thunderbolts). It’s also well up from last year’s Memorial Day weekend action release, the ostensibly final Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, which debuted at $79 million. The year before saw Warners’ Furiosa have a notoriously bumpy rollout at $32 million.
If reports of Mandalorian and Grogu’s allegedly $165 million budget are to be believed, then the new Star Wars flick already bested its price tag in its first global weekend, albeit with the caveat that theater owners pocket about half of that initial haul. And in a world of diminished movie attendance in a post-pandemic, post-streaming, and frankly post Disney+ world, a holiday debut that just about crosses over into nine figures is not shabby.
When Solo was perceived as a failure, it was during a moment where no other Disney Star Wars movie earned less than $1 billion, and the Marvel machine was cranking out that number once or twice a year. It was also a time when the love for the brand—or more specifically the older films from the 1970s through 2000s—was higher. In other words, it was before market oversaturation that came with a new movie every year for five years straight, followed by a glut of arguably too many Disney+ streaming shows.
The Mandalorian and Grogu is directly derived from the biggest hits of that strategic pivot to streaming. So the movie might represent a new chapter for Star Wars at the studio, but it is also the culmination of a strategy that its new owners have been building to for a decade. Indeed, the goal since 2012 has been to always make Star Wars a brand that exists in perpetuity like Marvel Comics characters, DC, Star Trek, and a small collection of lucrative others. The downside was that Star Wars could (and we’d argue has) lost its specialness as a piece of film and pop culture history. It no longer represents a specific moment in its medium, industry, or fans’ lives, but is rather a product designed to appeal to all generations—and specifically the next generation(s) who need to replenish the customer base.