2026 has already proven to be a huge year for movies, and has delivered the strongest first-quarter haul for Hollywood Post-COVID (via Screendollars), thanks to hits like Wuthering Heights, Project Hail Mary, Hoppers, and now The Super Mario Galaxy. Although The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is currently the favorite to breach the billion-dollar mark after registering an enormous opening, given how much stacked the rest of the year is, it won’t be the last.

While animated titles will continue to dominate, as both Toy Story 5 and Minions 3 are top contenders to hit the billion-dollar threshold, the live-action space is just as competitive, if not more. With the MCU on track to release some of its most highly anticipated releases of the Multiversal Saga, and Dune 3 commencing the hype train with its teaser, this is going to be a banger year for blockbusters.

Here’s a look at six live-action films, ranked from long shots to near-certainties to cross $1 billion worldwide.

6 Disclosure Day – June 12

Even if it’s a long shot, you can never count out Steven Spielberg when it comes to the blockbuster conversation. Having pioneered the blockbuster landscape in the ’70s, his return to familiar territory with an alien movie carries an inherent appeal.

Positioned for a June release as opposed to arriving in July, which is shaping up to be a brutal corridor for blockbusters, this has a decent chance of making it big. As for the billion-dollar threshold, while a bit distant, if it does tap into the cultural zeitgeist, given the current consensus on aliens and the government, it could emerge as a legit surprise.

5 Dune 3 – December 18

Had Dune 3 been to premiere in a more relaxed window, like Project Hail Mary, this could’ve been the first entry in the franchise to reach the billion-dollar mark, especially after the reception to Dune 2. But again, going up against Avengers: Doomsday is always going to be an uphill task.

Only time will tell if Dunesday could replicate Barbenheimer, as both releases are targeted to a similar demographic. But considering the threequel will have IMAX exclusivity, if it’s on par with the previous installments, strong legs combined with premium format earnings could strengthen its case.

4 Michael – April 24

Music biographies tend to be hit or miss, as seen with last year’s Bruce Springsteen biopic. However, a biopic about Michael Jackson, arguably the biggest pop icon to ever exist, will always amass huge appeal, both domestically and internationally.

It’s currently projected to deliver an opening of $60M+ (via Deadline), higher than Bohemian Rhapsody, which currently holds the record for the highest-grossing music biopic at $910 million (via Box Office Mojo). And if the movie delivers, there could be a new king and potentially a billion-dollar flick in town.

3 Moana Live-Action – July 10

From a creative standpoint, it’s one of the most artistically bankrupt ventures of 2026, which is par for the course for Disney’s live-action remakes of classic IPs. But the trajectory of these remakes has been pretty lucrative commercially, unless it’s a universally panned release like 2025’s Snow White.

But given that it’s Moana, an IP that has a huge built-in audience, and its sequel, despite feeling closer to a direct streaming release, raced past the billion-dollar threshold, a scene-for-scene remake is positioned to draw a massive crowd. The only question is whether its four-quadrant appeal will be enough to offset a crowded summer.

2 Spider-Man: Brand New Day – July 31

It’s a Spider-Man movie, so of course, it’s one of the biggest favorites of the year to fly past the billion-dollar mark, even during a crowded summer. Moreover, the decision to revert to street-level storytelling amid multiversal fatigue has also contributed to the goodwill surrounding the release.

Combined with the fact that Tom Holland‘s Peter seems more in line with the traditional Peter Parker that fans have come to cherish, it’s almost guaranteed to reach the billion-dollar figure. What will be interesting to see is whether it could become the highest-grossing movie of the year, especially with Doomsday around the corner.

1 Avengers: Doomsday – December 18

While it has been seven years since the last Avengers movie dropped, it can’t be said for certain if Doomsday will be impacted by the growing superhero fatigue. Doomsday is too big to fail at this point, and with many legacy characters returning, the nostalgia factor will once again ensure it flies past the billion-dollar mark.

Moreover, if Brand New Day is well-received, it’ll undoubtedly contribute to the build-up to Doomsday, even if it misses out on the IMAX screens because of Dune 3. However, if the end-product proves to be underwhelming, this could seriously impact its profitability, as given its estimated production budget of $450, just roughly north of a billion won’t be enough to break even.

All in all, 2026 is already on track to become one of the biggest years for Hollywood in terms of Box Office gross, particularly after a promising start to the year.

What’s your most anticipated release of the year? Drop below!